Some initial thoughts and observations on the search for missing backpacker Ray Humpherys:
Ray is 66. He is an avid backpacker. He has visited the Hidden Lake area of the Uintas repeatedly (a family member told me it is one of their favorite places to visit because it is relatively quiet and secluded). Ray and several family members departed from the Crystal Lake TH on the morning of Wed. July 18, 2018. At about 10:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Ray went to grab water from Hidden Lake to douse a camp fire. The rest of the family retired to their tents. Ray was discovered to be missing the following morning. Summit County SAR received notification around noon on Thurs. July 19, 2018 and launched a search.
Ray was known to be wearing a jacket and vest when last seen. He was also carrying a head lamp. The Humpherys family camping party had originally planned to return from their trip on Fri. July 20, 2018. Due to the disappearance they have remained on scene.
A check of the weather at the Trial Lake SNOTEL station shows very mild conditions.
View attachment 66582
In summary, daytime highs have been between 70-75 degrees F. Nighttime lows have been near 50 degrees F. Precipitation has been negligible. That's good! Very survivable weather. The lack of precip is especially encouraging.
Now, let's talk about the terrain.
Hidden Lake sits at about 10,260 feet above sea level. It is bounded on the north by Notch Mountain and the south by Mount Watson. Both of these mountains are barriers to travel. The ground slopes uphill to the east of Hidden Lake, rising about 200 vertical feet to the Three Divide area. Some of that ground is wooded, but much of it is at the tree line interface so vegetation is thin and visibility is good.
To the west, the ground falls gradually at first and then steeply into the gorge of the Middle Fork Weber River. Hidden Lake is part of the Weber River drainage. Its output flows through a series of meadows before reaching a steep and rocky slope, where the stream drops to the river. The elevation of the river directly west of Hidden Lake is roughly 9,400 feet ASL. That's a drop of about 800 vertical feet.
The terrain would force someone attempting to traverse north around the west side of Notch Mountain gradually downhill. That's also true for the traverse south around Mount Watson, but to a lesser degree (I've followed good game trails near the 10,200 foot contour line around the western foot of Mt. Watson).
The slopes above the river are heavily wooded. Travel through that terrain is difficult. It is also a very difficult area to find someone who is sheltered up and possibly non-verbal.
Standard protocol on a SAR mission is to send hasty teams down the established trails immediately, to eliminate the possibility of the missing person being on a trail. We can presume that happened on day one of the search (July19). On day two, SAR put a dive team in Hidden Lake.
View attachment 66583
They've also been using the Utah Department of Public Safety helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft from the Civil Air Patrol to search from the air.
View attachment 66584
UAS (drone) operations are currently prohibited in the area due to the ongoing use of aircraft in the search. However, my brother recorded video of the search area in 2015. The video begins looking south toward Long Mountain and the Middle Fork Weber River headwaters. It then pans toward the east, revealing a corner of Hidden Lake. The camera then moves toward Three Divide, with Mount Watson on the right and Long Mountain on the left.
Search dogs have been employed, though I'm not sure to what effect. They would seem to be one of the best resources, given that the searchers have scent items readily available.
The Garrett Bardsley Foundation activated to organize volunteers for the search on day three (Sat. July 22, 2018). About 100 volunteers registered and were split into four groups.
View attachment 66585
I took part in the Bardsley Foundation grid search as part of group four. The area we covered was in the proximity of Notch Lake, north of the Notch Mountain Trail. I tracked my search by GPS. However, I'm not exactly certain where the other three teams searched.
I'm also not certain if the volunteer grids were assigned by the professional SAR team or if the Foundation crafted them independently.
Some thoughts on probabilities:
An experienced backpacker is going to recognize the Middle Fork Weber River as a barrier to travel. Therefore, I'd surmise that it presents the western boundary of the high-probability search area. The other barriers as identified above are Notch Mountain, Three Divide and Mount Watson. So I'd draw a heat map within those boundaries, with the probability falling away the father one traveled from the lake.
Click here to view on CalTopo
My expectation is that SAR is scouring the slopes immediately west of Hidden Lake. The volunteer search continued on Sun. July 22, 2018. At this time, I am not aware of where those volunteers were focused. It would make sense to me though to use them in what I listed as the "cool zone" on the map above, presuming those areas aren't already being covered by SAR.
However, it's also worth considering the length of time Mr. Humpherys was unaccounted for before being reported missing (approximately 12 hours) and the distance he might have traveled in that time. He may very well be outside of my probability zones. Missing people go missing because they behave unexpectedly.
As a parting note, Hidden Lake played a role in the story of
Kim Beverly and Carole Wetherton. It was the location of two of their final photographs. Kim and Carole's remains were eventually located at an improvised rock shelter directly west of Mount Watson, well south and a little west of the lake.
