COVID-19 Affecting Your Plans?

[gnwatts]

.......And @gnwatts you're in the thick of it right now, which I know you know, so stay well! (I'm currently in New Castle, so it'll be here soon.)

Isolated Australians in Aspen allegedly defy order, go skiing in Snowmass Friday

Two Australians ordered into isolation in Aspen after testing positive for COVID-19 may have defied a public health order and left their hotel room Friday to ski in Snowmass Village, an official said Saturday. In...

www.postindependent.com

Thank you @Rockskipper
Thank you @Wanderlust073
FWIW I have not had a cold or flu in 25 years. COVID-19 is something different, and much more dangerous to a lot of people.
Most people with kids have left town. Everyone we know is heading to Utah.

 

[LarryBoy]

I was planning on heading south to camp and hike next weekend and I'm actually getting a little concerned that it will be spring break level crowds with all the schools closed. Backpacking is a whole different story though.

True that. Time to head to a super double top secret spot!

 

[Rockskipper]

If you think you have super-immunity, check out cytokine storm. Your body's immune system can be too effective.

 

[fossana]

As an add-on to @Nick's post. There is a cool set of simulations on WaPo that shows the transmission curves with different social distancing scenarios.

p.s. It's not my opinion on symptoms, it's based on the data. For the record, I used to be a vaccine researcher and did my grad work in the molecular epidemiology of infectious diseases, so I do have a smidgen of credibility with regard to interpreting the COVID-19 data/research.

 

[OwenM]

Not to be on-topic or anything, but it's starting to affect my plans. Effective immediately, REI is closing their retail stores through March 27, and I'd been planning to visit one this week. Figures...

 

[fossana]

Not to be on-topic or anything, but it's starting to affect my plans. Effective immediately, REI is closing their retail stores through March 27, and I'd been planning to visit one this week. Figures...

On a related topic, WaPo's recent article on how thru hikers may be impacted from a resupply perspective. I can only imagine what that must feel like to have planned for that long and have to seriously consider canceling. Of note:

Late last month, Mountain House, an Oregon company whose freeze-dried meals are popular with hikers and doomsday preppers alike, temporarily shut down its website after seeing a 1,093 percent increase in sales compared to February 2019.

 

[Jackson]

Not to be on-topic or anything, but it's starting to affect my plans. Effective immediately, REI is closing their retail stores through March 27, and I'd been planning to visit one this week. Figures...

I think we're just about to begin to see how this is all truly going to affect everyday life. There have been some good, informative graphics shared on Reddit, and I think they help to put things into perspective.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fiun99

 

[Jackson]

Also, this article has some really cool animations/simulations and graphics showing how quarantining and social distancing affects the spread. Incredibly interesting.

 

[fossana]

I calculated the population-adjusted number of confirmed cases (>0.8/100K residents cutoff for the chart). Diagnostic bias is likely given that testing capacity/infrastructure varies by state, but this is more useful IMO that just the case count. I don't have a good source for metro-specific data yet.

 

[MikeM]

Not backcountry related, but this virus did force my wife and I to cancel a trip last weekend to Vegas. It just wasn't worth the risk. The crazy thing is that it took me 4 straight days of calling the airline to try and cancel my flights. I finally got through on a number someone posted on Facebook that is not publicly advertised. Travel companies are so overwhelmed with cancellations that I think some call centers are just not even taking calls. Better buckle up, this is going to be very far-reaching in the economy!

 

[Jackson]

Not backcountry related, but this virus did force my wife and I to cancel a trip last weekend to Vegas. It just wasn't worth the risk. The crazy thing is that it took me 4 straight days of calling the airline to try and cancel my flights. I finally got through on a number someone posted on Facebook that is not publicly advertised. Travel companies are so overwhelmed with cancellations that I think some call centers are just not even taking calls. Better buckle up, this is going to be very far-reaching in the economy!

It really is astounding how precipitously things have dropped over the last 3 weeks.

 

[gnwatts]

For Coloradans, a very informative site with case locations and the history about the people who are infected:

MAP: Where Colorado's coronavirus cases, deaths have been identified

Last updated on Jan. 15, 2021 at 8:24 a.m. The Colorado Sun is tracking coronavirus cases in Colorado in an effort to ensure citizens know when the disease has reached their communities and how prevalent it is. We update this page periodically. The first two cases in the state were announced on...

coloradosun.com

I called my doc, and they said as expected that you have to show symptoms, then call and make an appointment. They are presently out of the tests (they have gotten 10 test kits in the past 2 days), so even If you are symptomatic they would not be able to confirm the disease.
Pathetic.

 

[MikeM]

It really is astounding how precipitously things have dropped over the last 3 weeks.

Yep, and the Fed is basically out of options now that they've already dropped rates to near 0%. To see the way the market has reacted to that tells me we are nowhere near finding a bottom.

 

[fossana]

It really is astounding how precipitously things have dropped over the last 3 weeks.

It didn't help that Saudi Arabia and Russia got into oil price war at the same time, although from an environmentalism standpoint, it decreases the ROI on fracking operations in the States.

 

[John Morrow]

Well, this annual trip is one of the most important things to me and I see it slipping away..."forego discretionary travel"...straight from Trumps mouth in today's press conference. Where will be at with closures and restrictions by Monday, my planned departure?

 

[Wanderlust073]

It really is astounding how precipitously things have dropped over the last 3 weeks.

Shutdown of large sections of the economy, in particular those supported by small businesses which employ roughly 50 million people. Talk of ‘flatten the curve’ with zero tough discussions of how many sick/dead means the curve has been flattened enough to get people back to work. Stock losses suck, but impact far less people and sucks far less than loss of house and job and ability to feed a family will for the vast majority of people who live check to check in the best of times.

This goes on for the two months they keep going with now, you and I will be glad we own tents.

 

[Jackson]

Shutdown of large sections of the economy, in particular those supported by small buisnesses which employ roughly 50 million people. Talk of ‘flatten the curve’ with zero tough discussions of how many sick/dead means the curve has been flattened enough to get people back to work. Stock losses suck, but impacts far less people and sucks far less than loss of house and job and ability to feed a family will for the vast majority of people who live check to check in the best of times.

This goes on for the two months they keep going with now, you and I will be glad we own tents.

I've been thinking about the line from the Big Short where Brad Pitt says that for every 1% increase in unemployment, 40,000 people die. The veracity of the statement is debated, but there has to be a shred of truth to it at least.

Impossible to balance how many people should die from a virus and how many should die because they lose their income, home, etc.

 

[regehr]

Moab tells tourists to stay away, not equipped to handle coronavirus outbreak

Lines backed up the entrance to Arches National Park on Monday as many Utahns headed south with plans to “self-isolate” in the desert. Ginna Roe reports: Moab tells tourists to stay away, not equipped to handle coronavirus outbreak. (KUTV) But the locals in Moab are asking visitors to stay away...

kutv.com

 

[MikeM]

Shutdown of large sections of the economy, in particular those supported by small businesses which employ roughly 50 million people. Talk of ‘flatten the curve’ with zero tough discussions of how many sick/dead means the curve has been flattened enough to get people back to work. Stock losses suck, but impact far less people and sucks far less than loss of house and job and ability to feed a family will for the vast majority of people who live check to check in the best of times.

This goes on for the two months they keep going with now, you and I will be glad we own tents.

Yeah, my wife and I are also reconsidering plans we had to expand her business. At this point, she'll be lucky to keep the doors open. I think we can weather a few months, but not much longer. I already know some businesses that have said they probably won't be able to reopen.

 

[chandlerwest]

While riding the Zion NP shuttle last week I had to wonder how this could last. I casually heard two groups from different locations in California and 7 young men from Japan. The world rides those shuttles. Sure enough the park stopped the shuttles yesterday. Sigh....