COVID-19 Affecting Your Plans?

Seeing the reports of some of the crowding happening at state and national parks and the mindset to social distance, I suspect down in the desert, a lot of cryptobiotic soil may now be at risk of taking a beating, much more so than the norm as ignorant or otherwise careless people seek to distance themselves from others and veer off trails in the ecologically sensitive sections to keep their distance from others, and all while creating social trails, or, "socially distant" as may be an appropriate new term to call them by. Which is all a little ironic compared to the emergence of wildlife and such in some of the more densely populated communities out there that have been reported (dolphins in the waterways of Venice?).

As for me, I've been choosing to interact with nature by working to get a garden all planted out for my family. I usually try to do this each year anyway, but if much of the economic fallout now being forecasted does materialize depending on how much longer the shutdowns are implemented, it may prove extra important and beneficial to have our garden in this year. I'm also considering a backyard backpacking trip with any of my kids who want to join along in the coming weeks, simply to get my gear fix. Rather than getting our fix of wide breathtaking landscapes and vistas, we can look for the beauty in the small and simple things of our own backyard, the emerging flowers and tree blossoms, birds and insects, and so forth. I'm also fortunate to live within walking distance of some national forest mountain/canyon trails that I can do some hiking and even backpacking with as the snow begins melting out and things green up on high.
 
Came down from island park, near Yellowstone, 20% of north bound traffic was winbagos or trucks pulling trailers.... Fear is they will bring virus to remote locations with less hospital access.... So I'd say stay away.
 
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Wanderlust073 said:
Lock down the at risk. Cater food to them, pay their bills, etc. Everyone else and their 98% chance of having no serious issues? back to work.

At the risk of offending, you know who (in general) trusts their government and obeys the rules? Old people. The at risk.

You know who doesn’t and won’t? Everyone else.

They change tactics now maybe there’s a chance the fallout is just a recession.

Sweden’s response: https://www.krisinformation.se/en/h...0/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus

(search page for ‘social contact’)
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Old people are most likely to die but according this CDC report of US cases 38% of hospitalizations were age 20-54. Just sending people back to work isn’t much better for the economy if businesses have half their employees out sick.

Again, main thing I think we all can agree on is massive test and trace is our escape. Great deep dive on how S Korea has done so well without shutting down their economy. I’d like to see some more on Japan’s strategy as well, who have done a great job of stopping clusters from spreading without shutdowns.
 
slc_dan said:
Even if it's by default, wouldn't you still say it works?
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Yes. I just have an issue with journalists presenting correlation as causation.

Attaching an article from NYT (thanks Titan for pdf'ing it). One of many such starting to appear. Hopefully the narrative is starting to shift.

Of particular interest if S Korea is the reference upon which all decisions are to be based:

"The data from South Korea, where tracking the coronavirus has been by far the best to date, indicate that as much as 99 percent
of active cases in the general population are “mild” and do not require specific medical treatment. The small percentage of cases
that do require such services are highly concentrated among those age 60 and older, and further so the older people are. Other
things being equal, those over age 70 appear at three times the mortality risk as those age 60 to 69, and those over age 80 at
nearly twice the mortality risk of those age 70 to 79."
 

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Brendan S said:
Just sending people back to work isn’t much better for the economy if businesses have half their employees out sick.
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I'm sorry, but it absolutely is better. 3 million people lost their jobs last week alone. A business running at half capacity is better than a business that is shut down. Surely that doesn't beg debate.
 
Wanderlust073 said:
I'm sorry, but it absolutely is better. 3 million people lost their jobs last week alone. A business running at half capacity is better than a business that is shut down. Surely that doesn't beg debate.
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I think, in the long run, this is going to fundamentally change how a lot of companies do business, I'm especially thinking about companies allowing remote work. I know that doesn't apply to some businesses, but I think this is going to really push more workers to work from home.
 
Wanderlust073 said:
I'm sorry, but it absolutely is better. 3 million people lost their jobs last week alone. A business running at half capacity is better than a business that is shut down. Surely that doesn't beg debate.
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I just don’t think it’s that simple...are people going to be rushing back to eat out at restaurants? What happens when you have outbreaks at the water treatment plant? hospital staff? It’s not like we can just jump back to anything close to normal. The places that have avoided shutdown and kept people working have done so because of testing and tracking infrastructure that we don’t have yet. Places that have thought they could keep things open are now shut down (UK). I just don’t see how economic recovery happens without having a handle on outbreaks.

The UK was trying pretty much what is proposed in that oped (everyone be careful but go about normal life and lock down those 70+) and abandoned it when models of herd immunity strategy would leave a quarter million dead in a country of 66 million and hospitals were already out of ICU beds.

I know everything sucks but it’s telling that all the “get back to work” “evidence over hysteria” etc articles are written by law professors (btw we have already surpassed the total deaths predicted in the Epstein article that was just posted here on Thursday), economists, technologists.... I’ve yet to see an actual infectious disease expert or epidemiologist that doesn’t think that’s massively jumping the gun at this point. Hopefully we get there soon. I think we’re all grasping for what can get us out of crazy unprecedented times. Cheers.
 
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Craiger said:
Just got an email informing me my back country permit for the Maze has been canceled. Canyonlads is forbidding overnight back country use between March 26 and April 30. :(
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Just came here to post the same thing.

Dear Canyonlands National Park Backcountry Permit Holder,

We regret to inform you that due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), all backcountry permits starting between March 26-April 30, 2020 have been cancelled and no overnight backcountry use in the park is permitted.

All cancelled permits will receive a credit for a future permit reservation starting within one year. When reapplying for a reservation please use the same email address and enter a note in the comments section indicating you wish to use your credit. If possible, also include the cancelled permit reservation number.

Our office hours will be limited through April 30, 2020 and communications may be delayed. We will not be available by phone and will respond to emails as soon as possible. Please refer to the park's website for up to date information, including further closures.

NOTE: There are no visitor services (lodging, restaurants, camping etc.) in the counties surrounding the park. The Southeast Utah Health Board and local communities have asked all visitors and potential visitors to please stay home. Avoid all unnecessary travel. We look forward to having you visit when this is over.
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Brendan S said:
I just don’t think it’s that simple...are people going to be rushing back to eat out at restaurants? What happens when you have outbreaks at the water treatment plant? hospital staff? It’s not like we can just jump back to anything close to normal. The places that have avoided shutdown and kept people working have done so because of testing and tracking infrastructure that we don’t have yet. Places that have thought they could keep things open are now shut down (UK). I just don’t see how economic recovery happens without having a handle on outbreaks.

The UK was trying pretty much what is proposed in that oped (everyone be careful but go about normal life and lock down those 70+) and abandoned it when models of herd immunity strategy would leave a quarter million dead in a country of 66 million and hospitals were already out of ICU beds.

I know everything sucks but it’s telling that all the “get back to work” “evidence over hysteria” etc articles are written by law professors (btw we have already surpassed the total deaths predicted in the Epstein article that was just posted here on Thursday), economists, technologists.... I’ve yet to see an actual infectious disease expert or epidemiologist that doesn’t think that’s massively jumping the gun at this point. Hopefully we get there soon. I think we’re all grasping for what can get us out of crazy unprecedented times. Cheers.
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@Brendan S - I started an off-line discussion with a few after following gov Cuomo's news conf. for a week. Initially he was focused on getting CDC to approve in-state testing. He then initiated various actions (no elective surgeries, ordering hospitals to create min 50% and ideally 100% increase in hospital beds, formulate plans to acquire mask/ventilators etc, mobilize feds, tightening social distancing measures until he closed the valve, requiring further action in NYC where lack of social distancing is a big problem, etc, etc.) There's a long list of other important actions he took, incl measures to prevent people from getting evicted, laws to protect age 70+ and people with compromised immune systems, etc. This week several drugs will also be tested on a "compassionate" basis in NYS. Todays numbers showed 78,000 have been tested now in the state, see charts.

He is super focused on flattening the curve and what needs to be done to achieve that, absolutely 1'st priority, like many governors now. Today he carefully "dipped his toes" into starting to think about how we get people back to work again at some point and he mentioned the 'stratification approach'. This is not in any way, shape or form a signal from him to suddenly eliminate efforts of flattening the curve. He is starting to think about options for the second phase. I'm starting to pay attention to him after the 78,000 test.
 

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Zion finally closes Angels Landing after being totally overcrowded this last weekend.
And I do not even want to think about who touched the chains and did not wash their hands properly.
Zion Campgrounds also close on 3/25 but the park itself remains open.

I definitely avoid going to the main canyon and Eastside right now as it is busy like crazy. I stick to the less traveled trails on the Kolob Terrace and the South Desert for now. Just too many people for me to not be worried.
I'm in the highest risk group and already have my fifth dust-related bronchitis this year, I do not need anything else.
Because there are tons of trails on BLM land where I never see anyone, I'm out hiking every day as long as my lungs let me do that.

I guess with all my huffing, puffing, and coughing I do not need to worry about social distancing, because no one wants to be near me anyway, lol. :)
 
Wanderlust073 said:
I'm sorry, but it absolutely is better. 3 million people lost their jobs last week alone. A business running at half capacity is better than a business that is shut down. Surely that doesn't beg debate.
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surely some one out of a job is better than some one dead. surely that doesn't beg debate.


does keeping the business running at half capacity increase the cost in human lives? if it does i'd prefer the business shut down. i imagine there are other people who would feel that way.



not to say that i'm not concerned about the economic fall out of this. i'm very concerned. it's looking very likely i could be out of work next week. i have family members who already are. and even if it wasn't hitting close to home, of course i would care about millions of people losing their jobs. but if we're worried about the cost of the reaction to this, i hope that we're erring on the side of human lives rather than jobs.
 
Titans said:
@Brendan S - I started an off-line discussion with a few after following gov Cuomo's news conf. for a week. Initially he was focused on getting CDC to approve in-state testing. He then initiated various actions (no elective surgeries, ordering hospitals to create min 50% and ideally 100% increase in hospital beds, formulate plans to acquire mask/ventilators etc, mobilize feds, tightening social distancing measures until he closed the valve, requiring further action in NYC where lack of social distancing is a big problem, etc, etc.) There's a long list of other important actions he took, incl measures to prevent people from getting evicted, laws to protect age 70+ and people with compromised immune systems, etc. This week several drugs will also be tested on a "compassionate" basis in NYS. Todays numbers showed 78,000 have been tested now in the state, see charts.

He is super focused on flattening the curve and what needs to be done to achieve that, absolutely 1'st priority, like many governors now. Today he carefully "dipped his toes" into starting to think about how we get people back to work again at some point and he mentioned the 'stratification approach'. This is not in any way, shape or form a signal from him to suddenly eliminate efforts of flattening the curve. He is starting to think about options for the second phase. I'm starting to pay attention to him after the 78,000 test.
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Yeah I think Cuomo has generally handled things well. I’m mostly pushing back at the recent Laffer/Moore push to “get back to work” no matter what in the short term. I think we should be planning for how that can happen but ignoring science and having massive death and illness is not going to lead to any better economy 9 months from now.
 
Inslee finally caved and sent us in WA into shelter in place after Newsom and Brown (CA and OR) did it in the last week (OR just yesterday I think). Hasn't really hit us east of the mountains yet, but from what I'm hearing it will soon if it hasn't already. To paraphrase some dufus "it's the tests, stupid." Let's get 'em done and start tracking.
Also a friend of mine from a shared summer job we worked together MANY years ago posted on FB about his currently-still-going-on-experience with COVID. His descriptions are NOT what I want anyone to experience. He's got pneumonia on top of it now and I am praying he survives. It seems he will but it has been touch and go. I haven't seen him in more than 20 years but he says he was pretty fit when this all went down.
 
So, while Grand County is basically saying "GTFO," Garfield County is saying "Please come here."

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And since my usual hiking buddy can't legally camp in Grand County like I can this weekend, guess where we're going? (Don't worry, we'll only have to stop in any town once and only for fuel, and we'll sanitize our hands before touching the pumps.)
 
Udink said:
So, while Grand County is basically saying "GTFO," Garfield County is saying "Please come here."

View attachment 87434

And since my usual hiking buddy can't legally camp in Grand County like I can this weekend, guess where we're going? (Don't worry, we'll only have to stop in any town once and only for fuel, and we'll sanitize our hands before touching the pumps.)
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That was an eternity ago as fast as everything has moved though. Any word on if they're still encouraging visitors?

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So far at my hospital we have had only three positive tests with no one actually hospitalized for it. We appear to have enough PPE but I have gone out and gotten my own mask and N95/P100 cartridges in case things get really tight. Thank you NAPA. Today they will start screening all employees upon entering the building. Living in a rural state is a good thing right now. Even with an influx of summer home owners there really isn't any forced times of large group contact except the grocery store. I'll be back at work today trying to do all I can to stay out of people's airways. I will probably go hike this weekend someplace local. Probably a good chance to introduce my new hiking dog to a low effort hike. I'm going to stay away from the Whites for a bit.
 
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