2016-2017 Snowpack

[Nick]

To those much smarter than I, can you help me interpret the following?


I went to the site
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/fgd.html
to get a forecast for Flaming Gorge releases and how it will affect
floating the Green River this summer. Didn't understand any of
the info in a practical manner.

It means there's going to be a crap load of water! 6600 CFS starting April 1st is crazy early for that much water. The max they can send downstream without doing a lot of damage is something like 8400 CFS so they are basically trying to make room. In my unprofessional opinion, they will bump it up to 8400 once these get going and it'll stay that way until the snowpack is reduced enough that they don't have to worry about having capacity to accommodate the water coming. What that means for this summer depends a lot on when you're calling summer and how the melt plays out between now and then.

 

[Nick]

A bit more... I floated the ABC last year at around 2000 CFS. It was a blast and I am very excited to do it at higher levels. The only class III is Red Creek in the B section. The A section has a class II+ as the worst thing. It'll be super fast with that much water so it would be easy to do the A&B in a day. Unless you want to portage around the low bridge, skip the C at high water. This is us going under last year. It felt tight even at 2k CFS.

 

[DrNed]

A bit more... I floated the ABC last year at around 2000 CFS. It was a blast and I am very excited to do it at higher levels. The only class III is Red Creek in the B section. The A section has a class II+ as the worst thing. It'll be super fast with that much water so it would be easy to do the A&B in a day. Unless you want to portage around the low bridge, skip the C at high water. This is us going under last year. It felt tight even at 2k CFS.

So If I understand correctly the bridge noted above will likely be underwater not too long after they get up to
8400 cfs. Without going back to the site, it seems like Flaming Gorge is at 80% of capacity? and if that's correct
max output should remain through May or June, assuming no freak storms in April & May?

It would be interesting to see historical data on FG capacity and outputs.

I'm defining summer as June - August, not quite correct as far as the calendar goes,
but more practical in how I live.

I really wish I had the ability get away from work for weeks at a time. I'd be hitting all the white
water I could.

You should really get out on the Snake this year Nick - West Table to Sheep Creek Canyon(?)
It has great bang for your buck. Big Kahuna will be covered at high water and Lunch Counter
will be life changing. It's a great place to get comfortable with the big stuff. Do it!:twothumbs:

 

[Nick]

That bridge doesn't go underwater, it just gets too close for boats to go under. I doubt it would be safe to go under even as low as ~4000 CFS (maybe less). I think it's probably too hard to tell what that means for flows this summer, except that they will most likely be pretty good at least through much of July. Last year wasn't as good and they kept it flowing strong through August at upward of 2000 CFS. Part of that was something to do with protecting a native fish population though. I can't remember the details I bet @Dave does. Speaking of Dave, he has some good experience with Flaming Gorge running at capacity. He did it in my non-self bailing duckies one year. I bet May and June are close to or at max output if things keep going like they are.

I am definitely planning on getting to the Snake/Alpine Canyon. Actually, if all goes to plan I'll be doing some more fierce rivers that I didn't expect to run for at least another year. The permit gods were not kind when it came to the easier stuff like Deso and the San Juan, but they were very generous with some others. More on that later...

 

[Dave]

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/fgd.html

That's the link you want. Looks like it was updated today and says outflows are cranking up to power plant capacity over the next three days. @Nick is right that this is very early for such strong releases, but it's short of the statutory maximum of 8400 cfs. That will probably come in April or May. Regardless of the runoff, expect releases from the dam to come down after June. People running Lodore this spring are going to have some crazy trips.

July or August will pretty much certainly be back down to the usual releases (800-2000 cfs). The real question at this point is how early we'll see the bypass tubes open and how long they'll stay open.

 

[Dave]

It would be interesting to see historical data on FG capacity and outputs.

That info's all available on public-facing websites from the BOR.

 

[Kmatjhwy]

Now just an update here in Jackson Hole for near Mid March. A super nice warm and sunny spell has descended upon the area and how much of the snow here in town and the low valley areas is starting to melt out. Yea!!!!!! In most of the recent years, most of the town and the adjacent Elk Refuge has been melted out by the end of March. Have to see what happens but if this weather continues, it could be so again. And this current warm spell with each day in the 40s at least is supposed to continue at least all week plus except for some rain and precip on Thursday. Yea!!! Last year we had a near normal snowpack but spring came early with the snow melting and then by July with all the warm and dry weather, we had the fires start. Maybe this is exactly what we needed to have a normal summer and to avoid the fires, is above normal snowpack to offset the early spring (as of late it seems more and more early springs), then a normal hot and dry summer. Might be able to start my hiking in late May after all.

 

[powderglut]

We've hit 60 degrees the last two days. I'm already starting to see some lawn around my house a month early. Snow pack up high is still holding strong.

 

[Dave]

Talked to BOR today about the latest projections. Powell's expected to rise nearly 50 feet by July, then taper off a bit. Mead is rising. Flaming Gorge will probably begin bypass flows in April and could reach four feet below full pool by August.

 

[Deleted User]

Crocus have already bloomed. Tulips and Hyacinth are just about ready to go, and the Lupines have already started to grow.

Cottonwoods still holding the snow up high, starting to take a hit at the base. Frozen crud AM, Manky turns in the PM. Needs Moar Snow. Looks to be some Wen-Fri next week.

 

[Kmatjhwy]

Here in Jackson Hole this week with the nice weather we have had some 60 degrees temperatures. Yea!!! We are even supposed to have near 60 degrees again tomorrow. How much of the snow melted here in town. But as of next week and so forth, it will be a return to the rain and snow. First rain in town with snow up high, then later on even some snow back in town. Such is the case here locally with it going back and forth till June it seems with most years. But these 60 degrees days sure did feel Great!!! Wishing Everyone the Best!

 

[Nick]

The latest snowpack map. The Yampa is actually looking lower than average despite everything around it. @Dave...

 

[Absarokanaut]

Thanks for the post man.

It's beeen warm and melt down low has been substantial, but it is still piling up at higher elevations.

 

[powderglut]

So... a little about the Yampa's low readings. I've been living in Steamboat Springs since the early 1970's. Winter left us for most of February this year. I think warmest on record. We're not the highest ski area with the base at 7000' and the summit at 10,600'. Avg yearly snowfall at mid mt about 340" recorded during ski season. I've never seen us get abandoned by winter this badly.
Slow start to early season snowfall, but Dec and Jan were 100" snow months. Feb got very warm (many 50 degree days) and we received only 45" for the month. March snow was lowest in history with 11" and quite a few days reaching 60 degrees. In all my years here, I have never seen the valley so devoid of snow at this time of year. So... that is why we are the anomaly in an over average snow year in the west.
Yup...after the third week of January we went into the great snowless donut hole! Hopefully it doesn't kick us in the butt with forest fires.

 

[Artemus]

The latest snowpack map. The Yampa is actually looking lower than average despite everything around it. @Dave...

View attachment 53982

Thanks Nick, this is confirmed by my zoomed in version of the map: https://www.usbr.gov/UC_SnowMap/



Where do you get your pulled back or zoomed out version?

 

[Artemus]

The low and middle elevations in Utah are again snow free or snow reduced for this time of year. Again. The upside is that many desert and low mountain areas like the north rim of the Grand Canyon or Dark Canyon plateau are already open for business (backpacking) and have been for weeks.

 

[Nick]

Where do you get your pulled back or zoomed out version?

They keep it updated here:
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

 

[Dave]

Very interesting.

 

[Venchka]

Am I looking at the map correctly: Cirque of the Towers is at 190%-200% of normal now? The snow should be gone from the trails the second week of September? Unless it snows early?
Wayne


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[Nick]

The mosquitoes are going to be fierce in the high country this year...