COVID-19 Affecting Your Plans?

Greetings from Brooklyn lock-down. I recommend people watch Gov Cuomo's talk this morning. I watched live, so you'll have to look on youtube. Very level-headed. If I wasn't stuck with 8 million others, I'd be in the wilderness. To paraphrase (or re-phrase) Stalin: no people no virus.
Speaking of the virus, beware pure "human interest" stories in the press. They are almost always based on unique circumstances and/or idiosynchratic situations. The raw data on https://covidtracking.com/ and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is ok, but statistically imperfect (which is an understatement). In America, as testing rates go up infection rates drop. In the last 8 days the infection rate dropped from 13.8% to 9.8%. Mortality of positive cases dropped from 2.56% to 1.62%. And it's important to remember that the people being tested today are those that are symptomatic or are in close proximity to people who tested positive. This is not a randomized sample of Americans. It is a sample of the highest risk Americans. That doesn't mean one should stop washing hands or go out in public if they're not feeling 100%. Rather, it's a sign of how poorly the press is covering the virus. A more balanced view was published on 3/16: https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandemic/. And if you're looking for good news: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767. None of that changes the fact that I'm cancelling our late-April 15th anniversary trip to Santa Fe. Was excited to wander Bandelier with my wife, and to do a day hike in the Pecos. For now September in the Uintas is still on. For now...
 
Is that a voice of reason I hear? :)

We just need widespread testing asap. It's not going to make anyone better, but hard data needs to replace worst case scenarios and best guesses as the basis for policy decisions. And very, very quickly.
 
randakag said:
Greetings from Brooklyn lock-down. I recommend people watch Gov Cuomo's talk this morning. I watched live, so you'll have to look on youtube. Very level-headed.
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Agreed, exceptional level headed speech. You are however NOT in lock-down mode in Brooklyn or elsewhere in the state. A big part of his speech was exactly about the choice of words. "Shelter in place", "lock-down", create fear and panic which is much worse in his opinion, than dealing with the virus itself. Below are the NY facts, up-dated daily. Following Social Distancing : we are free to come and go, walk, run or hike and for instance watch the Bald Eagles, adult and juveniles, fly free over the local lake or river, catch a fish and devour it like nothing ever happened around them. :)

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

COVID-19

coronavirus.health.ny.gov coronavirus.health.ny.gov

www.governor.ny.gov

Video, Audio, Photos & Rush Transcript: Governor Cuomo Calls on Americans to Support Each Other in Face of COVID-19 Pandemic

Earlier, Governor Cuomo called on Americans across the nation to understand the individual stress and emotion felt by their friends, family, neighbors and colleagues during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to remember that they are not alone during this moment of unprecedented disruption.
www.governor.ny.gov www.governor.ny.gov

 
I guess everyone that got kicked out of Moab headed to San Juan County and the Bears Ears: https://www.friendsofcedarmesa.org/covid-19-message-the-canyons-can-wait/

In uncertain times, we turn to nature for solitude. We look to the great outdoors for a chance to decompress and re-center. And, now more than ever, we understand it may seem like Utah’s vast public lands hold the answer to extreme social distancing. Unfortunately, now is not the time to travel.

As apprehension surrounding COVID-19 continues to grow, Friends of Cedar Mesa is committed to caring for both our communities and this irreplaceable landscape. It’s why an unsettling scenario currently playing out in southeast Utah is of great concern.

Friends of Cedar Mesa is noting a continued and significant increase of outdoor recreation users to the greater Bears Ears region. With both lodging and camping closed to outside visitors in Moab, as well as throughout Grand, Emery and Carbon counties, it makes sense that travelers are pushing into San Juan County. Our field team has never seen more campers along Comb Ridge and local BLM campgrounds are full. This rush can lead to people to camp in previously undisturbed campsites and impact sensitive areas and archaeological resources.
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IntrepidXJ said:
I guess everyone that got kicked out of Moab headed to San Juan County and the Bears Ears: https://www.friendsofcedarmesa.org/covid-19-message-the-canyons-can-wait/
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I had permits for Grand Gulch starting Saturday, but we ended up canceling them as my friends didn’t feel comfortable traveling out from the East Coast. We actually had reservations at a hotel in Mexican Hat the night before we were suppose to start our hike, and I received an email from them saying they were canceling my reservation as they plan to close up.
 
John Morrow said:
Epstein is also a climate change skeptic. I wouldn't consider him a voice of reason. I'll acknowledge there's doomsday reporting happening. But swinging the pendulum as far in the opposite direction is no more helpful.
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Unless @randakag ’s nickname is Epstein, you're talking about someone that I wasn’t.
 
California’s locked down. I assume that means Colofornia will be following suit shortly. Ugh.
 
My partner and I just bailed on a four day trip to Zion next weekend, a trip we already cancelled once back in November due to weather. It really sucks cancelling something like this, especially after so much time planning, but it's important to keep perspective. Cancelling a vacation is a small thing to complain about at a time like this. The parks will still be there, and in the mean time I'm going to enjoy biking the relatively empty streets of San Diego
 
I didn't think it was at first, but I guess it is going to affect my plans after all. Well- just my standard weekend trips for now. The order to not allow camping in Grand, Emery and Carbon counties means I'm going to stay away from there for now, even though I could still easily do day trips there. Then I thought about heading to San Juan County, but with all the people heading there instead now, I think I'll stay away and not add to that. So in the meantime I think I'll just be sticking closer to home in western Colorado.
 
ramblinman said:
My partner and I just bailed on a four day trip to Zion next weekend, a trip we already cancelled once back in November due to weather. It really sucks cancelling something like this, especially after so much time planning, but it's important to keep perspective. Cancelling a vacation is a small thing to complain about at a time like this. The parks will still be there, and in the mean time I'm going to enjoy biking the relatively empty streets of San Diego
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If it's any consolation, it has been raining almost every day here. Many of the local trails are in bad shape since the soil contains clay. It will be a while before things dry out.
 
John Morrow said:
All of us who have cancelled plans can at least share in our disappointment here consoling each other!
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I don't even know what I'm allowed/advised to do anymore. Like I'm sure I can go hike in the stuff near where I live, but how far out can I go? Colorado Plateau too far for someone in SLC?
 
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Jackson said:
I don't even know what I'm allowed/advised to do anymore. Like I'm sure I can go hike in the stuff near where I live, but how far out can I go? Colorado Plateau too far?
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We live near Boulder and had the plan to drive out to the Page, AZ area with stops in Cedar Mesa on the way down. Hearing that it was getting overcrowded with Moab shutting down we just bailed on plans today. I figure the wife will be really nervous with the amount of people down there, even if we are keeping our distance. The plan was to primitive camp and just be outside for the next week. We'd be sure to step well off the trail if anyone else was around, use gloves at gas stations for fill ups, and come prepared with all the water and food we needed.

I was asking myself after California, will Colorado and Utah head toward a "Shelter in Place" restriction here soon? It would certainly be strange to be out in the next week if this started happening. I have a friend out near Kanab right now that says it's pretty quiet.

My head's been a mess all day weighing these options. A week outdoors would certainly clear up the cobwebs that come from staying inside and having snow dumped on us here. But also, we don't want to become part of the problem.
 
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