A dry year in the desert ?

TrailScot

TrailScot

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I hesitate to post this, since I have zero expertise in the interpretation of the data, but looking at the Snow Water Equivalent graphs from NRCS for Southeastern Utah seems to indicate that this could turn out to be a drier than average year, although I guess the next couple of months could still change that.

The graph below shows the current year in black, plus the 2 recent wet years of 2019 and 2023, the dry years of 2021 and 2022, and the average years of 2020 and 2024


Snow Water 2025 v1.png
 
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Now am down here in the Sonoran Desert in SW Arizona. It has not rained here whatsoever since a few showers back in September. The locals say that the last summer's monsoon season was dry here. Everywhere here it is dry and dusty. The mountains in Arizona are wayyy below normal for the precipitation that they have received. Could be fires this summer. Plan to go north as soon as possible to avoid any fires or smoke once it starts to warm up.
 
There's still a few weeks for things to change, but currently 2025 could possibly turn out to be the driest in southern Utah in the past 40 years, with the Snow Water Equivalent presently at just 50% of median.

The graph below shows data for this year up to March 1st, and the current driest year in that period (2018), plus the wettest (2023), in addition to the overall median.

Snow Water 2025 March 1st.png
 
It's worse currently for SW and S central UT. This is the most recent NWS seasonal report out (hopefully not the last with the staffing cuts). SW UT has since had a productive storm, with potentially another one coming next week. That's reflected in the map below.

Another thing to keep an eye on is the potential for La Niña to end in the near term. NWS is giving that 66% probability of happening Mar-May. That could return us to a more normal weather pattern, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Snow_Water_Equivalent_Percent_NRCS_1991-2020_Median_February_28_2025.png
 
I've got fingers/toes/eyes crossed that the slight snow in the forecast for next week in northern AZ actually materializes, otherwise I might be re-routing the South Bass -> Boucher mid-March trip I've had on the books. It's hard to expect ample runoff in the Gems with how dry it's been, and a dry Serpentine paired with that extra 7 mile waterless road walk would mean carrying in way more water than would be enjoyable on the knees.

Maybe back to Needles to get to Angel Arch? Maybe even a Dark Canyon loop!
 
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