2016 Mountain Backpacking - Bad means Good - Again

Artemus

Artemus

I walk
.
Joined
Jun 25, 2012
Messages
4,429
Disappointment
Well, similar to last years mountain snow pack the climate has run off the rails enough to pretty much ensure that we are going to have a very early spring in our high mountains. It was going pretty well in Utah until in February the El Nino firehose turned off and we had the second driest February in history. We will probably be able to get out in the high country snow free much earlier than normal. The disappointment is that the relentless, and forecast, climate change marches on unabated. This bodes poorly for the ecosystem and the long term water supply. Much of the lower than average snowpack - especially at low and mid elevations like my house at 7K' is due to much warmer than normal temperatures. This means much of the autumn, early winter, late winter and spring precipitation falls as rain and is not captured and stored in the snowpack. You can bemoan the bad luck of the situation or work to reduce man-induced climate change the choice being based on your belief system. There are bright spots of course. Much of the Wasatch is at or above normal in snowpack, parts of the Central Idaho mountains and the Beartooths. But the snow chart below (snowpack depth compared to average) is a lot more red and orange than cool blue.

Opportunity
Again I want to point out that this year there is an opportunity for a very early start of the backpacking season. I have started traveling in the high country months early the last two years and I will again this year. You will probably be able, depending on the weather, walk into the mountains much earlier than normal. But it is the weather after all so early mountain travel is not a foregone conclusion. So start your engines, make your plans and head out!

Data
The data below is again from the NOHRSC Snow Data site. I have referenced this source before. I consider this data authoritative and trustworthy. It is assembled from models, satellite data, Snowtels and boots on the ground.

The key is that yellow means less snow on the ground than average for this time of year. Orange and red are much less snow than normal on the ground compared to average. Red I'm talking like 3 feet less than normal. Go to the site and do your own investigation.

Notice:
The central and Southern Wind Rivers
The Tetons
Jellystone
The Wyoming Salt Range
The High Uintahs
North Rim of the Grand Canyon
etc. etc. etc.
Red,Yellow,Red,Yellow

Region capture 3.png

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?ql=station&zoom=3&loc=52.37+N,+117.43+W&var=ssm_depth_norm_d&dy=2016&dm=3&dd=5&dh=6&snap=1&o6=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&mode=pan&extents=us&min_x=-124.89166666667&min_y=30.749999999996&max_x=-94.883333333335&max_y=52.574999999995&coord_x=-109.8875000000025&coord_y=41.662499999995504&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=1100&height=800&nw=1100&nh=800&h_o=0&font=1&js=1&uc=0
 
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Are all of the depth ranges given on the chart expressed as deviations from the average? Trying to figure out why they'd say "inches of depth" in the legend and give negative values.

I was really excited about the snow we were getting earlier this Winter. Now, when I say that we need more snow, nearly everyone rolls their eyes at me and complains about Winter. That has to be one of my biggest pet peeves. Good to see that at least some places are at or above average. Hoping we get another storm or two before the warm weather is here to stay!
 
Jackson said:
Are all of the depth ranges given on the chart expressed as deviations from the average? Trying to figure out why they'd say "inches of depth" in the legend and give negative values.

I was really excited about the snow we were getting earlier this Winter. Now, when I say that we need more snow, nearly everyone rolls their eyes at me and complains about Winter. That has to be one of my biggest pet peeves. Good to see that at least some places are at or above average. Hoping we get another storm or two before the warm weather is here to stay!
Click to expand...
Jackson, this is the Modeled Snow Depth Departure from Normal as you can see in the title above the map in the site. The scale shows that the numbers can go negative in inches because there are up to 59 inches less than normal in the deep reds (a -59 from normal). Go play around in the site it is fascinating and invaluable. In the site the dropdown on the left gives you the chance to look at dozens of parameters including the second one "Snow Depth". Recommended.

I am very familiar with the site so I am happy to answer specific questions you have after you have poked around on the site to familiarize yourself with it.
 
Low elevation snowfall is done, but the mtns can still hope to pick up good amounts in the name of El Nino.

But of course in the long run we're f#cked, unless we collectively wake up. I worry about my kid's future.
 
Artemus said:
Jackson, this is the Modeled Snow Depth Departure from Normal as you can see in the title above the map in the site. The scale shows that the numbers can go negative in inches because there are up to 59 inches less than normal in the deep reds (a -59 from normal). Go play around in the site it is fascinating and invaluable. In the site the dropdown on the left gives you the chance to look at dozens of parameters including the second one "Snow Depth". Recommended.

I am very familiar with the site so I am happy to answer specific questions you have after you have poked around on the site to familiarize yourself with it.
Click to expand...

I looked that map over to make sure I was not going to miss something and make myself look like an idiot, but I did not succeed. Haha. The title should have been the first things I looked at, and I didn't even notice it. That makes complete sense now. That's a pretty awesome tool there. I'll spend a little time testing it out soon.
 
It was 62 in Carbondale today. My memory is not what it used to be, but I can't remember it being this warm this early.
 
I was kind of wondering too Greg. Fortunately we don't have to rely on our memory. The NWS are great data archivers - I used this great app to browse back year by year and, in Utah, for three stations they have these cool charts. You can glance at them and tell how warm the year was. I went back to the beginning of these charts (2000) and many years (maybe majority) of the last 15 were significantly warmer than normal. Another great data source:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/yeardisp.php?stn=KSLC&wfo=slc&year=2015&span=Calendar+Year

Regrettably I was not able to find the same data for Colorado easily.

Screen Shot 2016-03-03 at 9.56.29 PM.png
 
This year is quite a bit different than last year for us. Despite the fact that February barely gave up any snow after the first 6 days (30 inches at the ski area). approx 15" the last 23 days of the month. The snow pack in the valley (Steamboat Spgs) is probably well above normal. 50% of my lawn was showing last year at this time. 3 ft snowpack now. If we end up with avg March and April snowfall I'd suspect we'll be at least a month behind last year. High country usually isn't available until late June/ July unless you like hiking snow packed trails and mostly frozen lakes. We're about avg in the high country. Timing in the Flattops or Zirkel should be about usual. Not early unless spring is unusually warm and dry.
 
Nice chart Parma....... can we all say cycles???? I am not saying that we shouldn't control pollution either
 
Art, not sure about the normal snow depth data ..... in Island Park there was more snow depth than normal in January.
 
Bob said:
Art, not sure about the normal snow depth data ..... in Island Park there was more snow depth than normal in January.
Click to expand...
Bob, did you look at the model or my chart above? The Island Park region is one of the few cool blue areas. There are others. Fortunately for you and I your route in the Windies is hot red and thus will be much more free of snow and thus the crevasses will be exposed and the ice exposed in the ablation zone. Good for us but bad for the environment and that is what the subject of the post was all about. Parma's link to the NASA data and movie is also instructive if you take the time to watch it. Please do.
 
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