COVID-19 Affecting Your Plans?

[gnwatts]

Who to believe regarding the situation we are all in?
Governors? Politicians are hard to believe sometimes.
A legal scholar from the Hoover Institution, who ends his article - "Perhaps my analysis is all wrong, even deeply flawed."? That statement sums up his article perfectly.
Our president? Certainly not.
The WHO, who labeled it a pandemic? Yes.
My wife's sister who lives in Florence, Italy? Most certainly.
Maybe this is all blown out of proportion. Maybe not.

 

[zionsky]

If it's any consolation, it has been raining almost every day here. Many of the local trails are in bad shape since the soil contains clay. It will be a while before things dry out.

Sorry about all the precip in southern utah but I promised some to @Yvonne. Between that and the virus, I am taking (a little) consolation in cancelling my trip next week

 

[Brendan S]

Re testing, This is a fascinating article on the contrast in testing in S Korea vs Us. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW

@Wanderlust073 while I feel like we have plenty of evidence from other countries as well as the current outlooks for hospitalizations in NYC and CA to justify policy, I do feel like it has probably been overlooked that there is big potential human cost to swift and massive shutdowns over a more extended period of time...a catastrophic recession will cost lives. Some hope is current shutdowns buy us some time to increase testing to move into test-and-track mode
I’ve seen estimates we need around 120k tests per day to get there and could be there in the next week or so.

This can help too if the FDA gets their ass in gear for approval:

Utah company ready to crank out 50K COVID-19 tests per day

Co-Diagnostics says it has capacity to ‘supply all of the testing needs in Utah and around us easily’

www.deseret.com

 

[Wanderlust073]

Barring a frank assessment of how initial conditions in Italy may have resulted in a unique outcome, the only conclusion to be drawn is that social distancing is a pointless exercise in economic destruction that has failed to achieve the desired goal. Will they point a gun at the head of every Italian citizen or accept that the ‘solution’ is simply incompatible with society? How long will Fauci be allowed to prescribe the same failed treatment to the American patient? Sheer insanity.

 

[randakag]

Agreed, exceptional level headed speech. You are however NOT in lock-down mode in Brooklyn or elsewhere in the state. A big part of his speech was exactly about the choice of words. "Shelter in place", "lock-down", create fear and panic which is much worse in his opinion, than dealing with the virus itself. Below are the NY facts, up-dated daily. Following Social Distancing : we are free to come and go, walk, run or hike and for instance watch the Bald Eagles, adult and juveniles, fly free over the local lake or river, catch a fish and devour it like nothing ever happened around them.

COVID-19

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

Video, Audio, Photos & Rush Transcript: Governor Cuomo Calls on Americans to Support Each Other in Face of COVID-19 Pandemic

Earlier, Governor Cuomo called on Americans across the nation to understand the individual stress and emotion felt by their friends, family, neighbors and colleagues during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to remember that they are not alone during this moment of unprecedented disruption.

www.governor.ny.gov

You are correct. We are not in lock-down in Brooklyn. Cuomo’ s speech was clear to the effect. I apologize for the use of inaccurate terminology. We are able to do grocery shopping, go to the pharmacy, exercise alone outdoors, and order take-out. When you see so many of your local businesses shuttered and many of your friends and neighbors lose months of income (and maybe more), it feels like a lock-down. And we are just beginning. I lived through both 9/11 and the great financial crisis here in NYC. This is both rolled into one in terms of the social and economic dislocation. Maybe because I live in such a densely populated place, I get to see a greater concentration of that dislocation. It’s painful to watch. Regarding doing all those lovely things that you describe, I have seen some cool hawks lately in Prospect Park, and the trees are starting to bud. But both my wife and I had to move our jobs into our home, and our children are home from school and discouraged from going outdoors. Next week ‘home schooling‘ starts for a minimum of 4 weeks.

 

[Brendan S]

Barring a frank assessment of how initial conditions in Italy may have resulted in a unique outcome, the only conclusion to be drawn is that social distancing is a pointless exercise in economic destruction that has failed to achieve the desired goal. Will they point a gun at the head of every Italian citizen or accept that the ‘solution’ is simply incompatible with society? How long will Fauci be allowed to prescribe the same failed treatment to the American patient? Sheer insanity.

??? It very much seems to be achieving its goal in Italy.

edit: social distancing sucks and will be devastating to the economy but could have been avoided if we had been prepared and acted quickly. The cat’s out of the bag now and I haven’t seen a single epidemiologist or infectious disease expert say what we are doing now is overreacting. We’ve been warned this was coming and didn’t have the infrastructure in place and then blew it off for the early weeks when we could have managed it in a much less draconian manner. It’s our own fault and hopefully we learn for next time, cause it could be a lot worse.

 

[Wanderlust073]

Italy’s total deaths now exceeds China’s and they are considering stricter lockdowns as that number continues to accelerate. Any number of headlines covers this in detail. I guess everyone defines success by a different metric, but I’d be hesitant to point at Italy as an example of the efficacy of the actions implemented there to date.

Friday’s death toll was higher than China recorded on any day of its virus outbreak. At this point only a few people are dying in China each day, according to government data.

The rate at which infections and deaths are multiplying in Italy has slowed only slightly since the national lockdown began. Even after Friday’s new measures, officials are still considering a more sweeping ban on leaving the house to go to work. If the daily contagion rate and death toll don’t start to decline soon, as many Italians as possible could soon be told to work from home, with only a few public- and private-sector offices allowed to continue operating.

edit: and while I agree that a country that has basically perpetuated a state of war for nearly 80 years should have long since been prepared for a bio attack/pandemic, Fauci has been at NIH long enough to advise SIX presidents in order to prepare us and here we are with his hands holding the reins...

 

[Brendan S]

I mean, yeah Italy has been a disaster but they went from exponential growth to leveling of new cases after lockdowns. There were already so many cases when it went into effect that of course there is going to be high number of deaths for next week or so.

I guess I don’t know what else you do at this point. It is very contagious, requires a high number of hospitalizations, and can be basically undetectable but still transmissible for many people. Perhaps the largest sample of “testing everyone” is a few nba teams and out of a dozen or so positive cases nearly all of them have zero symptoms. I’m very open to other ways to deal with this at this point that doesn’t involve social distancing that doesn’t overload the healthcare system.

 

[Wanderlust073]

Lock down the at risk. Cater food to them, pay their bills, etc. Everyone else and their 98% chance of having no serious issues? back to work.

At the risk of offending, you know who (in general) trusts their government and obeys the rules? Old people. The at risk.

You know who doesn’t and won’t? Everyone else.

They change tactics now maybe there’s a chance the fallout is just a recession.

Sweden’s response: https://www.krisinformation.se/en/h...0/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus

(search page for ‘social contact’)

 

[OwenM]

Who to believe regarding the situation we are all in?

Noone, and of course it's blown out of proportion.
Certainly not the media or government, as they quite literally lie about everything. Certainly not your sister-in-law whose situation is totally different, and knows nothing about yours.
Most cases will go unreported, and require no treatment, so we will never have anything resembling accurate numbers, only the facade. People can make all the little charts they want to, based on pure ignorance, and it won't mean a thing.
It's bizarre how "knowing" seems to be so important to people that they'll grasp at obviously false information, or just make crap up, to have something to "believe" and spread.
Reminds me of that quote, "Beware of false knowledge, it is more dangerous than ignorance."
I found out a long time ago, after being briefed on the top 10 hotspots worldwide that we might potentially get deployed to, and why, that "we have no idea what's really going on in the world"(that's my quote, from talking to my father, afterwards). That's reality, but the truth doesn't make people comfortable, so they look for something else.

Meanwhile, the store was out of eggs, so my plan to buy some was temporarily affected.

 

[Brendan S]

I think you end up with the same outcome of running out of ICU beds and ventilators. My wife manages the nursing staff at the cancer center here. She has around 30 employees with hundreds of regional patients. The nursing staff generally leans young-ish and under your scenario some of them have very few or no symptoms and work and infect likely dozens of immunocompromised patients (many of them young with totally manageable diagnoses) and they still end up on ventilators in the ICU from a single hospital unit.

there’s a lot less cruel (and easier) option and it’s test a lot of people and manage individual chains of transmission. Hopefully we are there in the next week or 10 days.

 

[Wanderlust073]

We’ll see how it plays out. Best case - whatever is left of the economy will be a thousand times the house of cards it has been since 2008, and I’ll be off to become the armed to the teeth prepper in a mountain compound that I used to scoff at before it all implodes again.

Fool me once...

 

[Titans]

You are correct. We are not in lock-down in Brooklyn. Cuomo’ s speech was clear to the effect. I apologize for the use of inaccurate terminology. We are able to do grocery shopping, go to the pharmacy, exercise alone outdoors, and order take-out. When you see so many of your local businesses shuttered and many of your friends and neighbors lose months of income (and maybe more), it feels like a lock-down. And we are just beginning. I lived through both 9/11 and the great financial crisis here in NYC. This is both rolled into one in terms of the social and economic dislocation. Maybe because I live in such a densely populated place, I get to see a greater concentration of that dislocation. It’s painful to watch. Regarding doing all those lovely things that you describe, I have seen some cool hawks lately in Prospect Park, and the trees are starting to bud. But both my wife and I had to move our jobs into our home, and our children are home from school and discouraged from going outdoors. Next week ‘home schooling‘ starts for a minimum of 4 weeks.

@randakag , I apologize to you. Already yesterday I regret writing it, for the many reasons you describe above. Being able to still get outside alone, feel the wind, breath the fresh air, watch the Eagles has been the daily mental boost lately. That’s easy upstate, but it’s going to be very challenging in densely populated areas like the city. Having everyone at home all day long with the enormous pressure of the health crisis, combined with sudden loss of income and family members hospitalized will be excruciating difficult. Others will be working nonstop under tremendous pressure taking care of everyone hospitalized. Thanks for reaching out.

 

[Titans]

I think you end up with the same outcome of running out of ICU beds and ventilators. My wife manages the nursing staff at the cancer center here. She has around 30 employees with hundreds of regional patients. The nursing staff generally leans young-ish and under your scenario some of them have very few or no symptoms and work and infect likely dozens of immunocompromised patients (many of them young with totally manageable diagnoses) and they still end up on ventilators in the ICU from a single hospital unit.

there’s a lot less cruel (and easier) option and it’s test a lot of people and manage individual chains of transmission. Hopefully we are there in the next week or 10 days.

yes, a big issue is asymptomatic carriers, here is the story of a small Italian town doing mass testing. The Danish CDC also extensively reported about many asymptomatic positive tested cases. Unfortunately DK decided to not ramp up widespread testing, so we will see how that plays out.

Virus Testing Experiment in Italian Town Appears to Have Halted COVID-19

According to researchers, authorities were able to prevent new infections with tough quarantine measures and strict testing on residents, whether they displayed symptoms or not.

www.newsweek.com

 

[zionsky]

Yosemite is closing. I'm certain they won't be the last
https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/management/closures.htm

 

[IntrepidXJ]

Yosemite is closing. I'm certain they won't be the last
https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/management/closures.htm

Rocky Mountain National Park, too: https://www.nps.gov/romo/planyourvisit/conditions.htm#covid19

Grand Canyon and Dinosaur NM river trips cancelled, too.

 

[gnwatts]

An Unexpected COVID-19 Hotspot Emerges In The Colorado Rockies

It was 2 a.m. on Sunday, March 8th and Bill Brueck couldn’t sleep. The 45-year-old father of two, from the snowy town of Minturn, Colorado, had a cough, body aches, chest congestion and a fever.

talkingpointsmemo.com

There are quite a few consultants I use in our architectural firm living in the Eagle Valley, people I work with everyday. And people that drive here every day to work. Eagle County crosses the county we live in, Garfield County.
I visited the pharmacy in City Market yesterday, everyone in line at the pharmacy had at least 6' separation, many wearing masks. At the main check out lines, it looked like a normal day, people packed in talking and joking, no one wearing a mask. Not one. We are hopeful but resigned to the fact that life is going to change big time, a lot more than it already has.

@OwenM, I hope you find some eggs.

 

[Craiger]

I have permits for the Maze via JetBoat to Spanish Bottom in April. I doubt Tex's will still be running their service by then. My understanding is Moab is shutting down services in a effort to keep people away.

 

[John Morrow]

One otherwise healthy active person's experience with the infection:

https://backcountrymagazine.com/stories/splitboarding-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

 

[Brendan S]

Rocky Mountain National Park, too: https://www.nps.gov/romo/planyourvisit/conditions.htm#covid19

Grand Canyon and Dinosaur NM river trips cancelled, too.

Surely full closure for Yellowstone soon

Cody Wyoming goes on lockdown after health worker at local hospital tests positive. Health commissioner says they suspect whole hospital was exposed.

Certain businesses, gatherings forbidden

A public health order has been established for Park County, closing child-care centers, restaurants, bars, fitness centers, conference rooms, museums and other services.

www.codyenterprise.com