Will be in Death Hollow in 2 weeks, had a question......

[Nick]

The VC is open 7 days a week. Call them for hours. And yes, good idea to follow their advice once it's time to make the decision. But at the same time you shouldn't be relying on anyone to keep you out of danger. To reiterate, it doesn't matter what the weather forecast says now. I'll translate it for you into all that matters. It is unsettled and potentially problematic. Lots can happen between now and then.

I know I've said this to you more than a few times, but I just have to say it again. There are TONS of places every bit as good or better than Death Hollow out here. From my perspective your intense focus on only DH over the years is similar to making the trek to Disney World year after year to ride just one ride, or flying all the way to The Louvre to see just one painting, ignoring all the others completely, again and again. DH is cool, I've done it like 6 or 7 times, but there is SO MUCH MORE. Just saying...

 

[Nick]

Oh, and for forecasts, I generally find weather.gov to be the most accurate.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...1.60211599499968&site=all&smap=1#.VV0_g9NViko

 

[John Kerby]

Understand your point, but when taking kids two states away to try something, I want to know what I am putting them through. As its the only hike I know, and I know its an extremely good one, its what I am comfortable with. I do not want to try a new hike with this group.....I want to stick with one I know, as it removes one variable. I know what to expect, what to prep them for. And frankly, I am personally an extreme creature of habit. When I fall in love with something, I never leave it. Been on the same inner passage cruise in Alaska twice for instance. Eventually, I will try a new hike in Utah. Just not this time.

At this point I know we will do Death Hollow, just not exactly how yet. It will work out. Did I mention that I spoke with two outfitters in Escalante who said that it would probably be fine? One said they had no rain forcast for this week anymore.....Then again, finally got ahold of the escalante region ranger (who has never done Death Hollow, and doesn't know it), and he said it might be dangerous given the rain they have had up to this point. It sucks. Wish it were easier to make this decision. In the end, it will be safer for me to take these kids on a hike I know and feel comfortable with. At least I understand the dangers with this. And if they get no more rain, it ought to be fine.

 

[Nick]

Did I mention that I spoke with two outfitters in Escalante who said that it would probably be fine? One said they had no rain forcast for this week anymore.....Then again, finally got ahold of the escalante region ranger (who has never done Death Hollow, and doesn't know it), and he said it might be dangerous given the rain they have had up to this point. It sucks. Wish it were easier to make this decision. In the end, it will be safer for me to take these kids on a hike I know and feel comfortable with. At least I understand the dangers with this. And if they get no more rain, it ought to be fine.

I think you might be completely missing what I've been saying. But hey, go with that, what could go wrong? Those guys must know their shit. And what the weather will be like in 5 days at any given coordinates. How were these canyons created again?

And with that, I am checking out of this topic. Please remember no fires out there, even if it's cold and wet. It's against the law. Good luck, be safe, have fun.

 

[John Kerby]

Wow. Maybe you missread my above post, and read an attitude or tone in it that was not there. I don't know. Because I am reading a rather heavy dose of it in what you just said.

Being as friendly as I can, I will say this: Have you ever taken 18 year olds on an out of state trip before? As a teacher? Have any idea what it takes? How hard it is? You cannot just simply change it. Parents sign up for a specific trip idea, and to vary it much can screw things up. Again, I KNOW this hike better than any other down there, I feel comfortable doing it, what to gear the kids up for, what dangers lurk in it. Weather, you are right, cannot be fully predicted. NO ONE KNOWS for sure what its going to be. Not the rangers, not the outfitters, not weather.com. This is the first time in 4 trips I have run into this problem. I was hoping someone might have recently been down there in the last couple of weeks to say how bad it is after the rains. Ok, no one has. I wasn't seeking attitude. Frankly, I don't use weather.com, mainly weatherunderground which I find to be accurate over accuweather. But even then, accuweather is decent in my experience. So sorry, not trying to piss you off, but given my situation, I am going to make the decision to still do the hike. I believe it can be done safely, and the students I am taking will love it.

I am sorry if you are expecting me to drop everything and do something different 2 days before we leave. Even if I wanted to, it would not be possible. We are swinging through Pikes Peak saturday morning, driving on to the trailhead saturday night, and starting the hike sunday morning if all goes well and I have supportive weather forcasts and ranger reports.

A final note.....How many of you had teachers willing to attempt anything like this in high school? I doubt many did. I am trying to introduce a few students to this hobby, taking massive risks, but want to show them this. These kinds of experiences can inspire kids. The ones I am taking are awesome young men, who have looked forward to this trip for almost a year. Seen my pictures and videos, heard my descriptions, and desperatly want to go. I have taken them on several local campouts and m,ade them do 10-16 mile hikes with a 40 ib pack to give them an idea of what they would be doing. All loved it, and want this. God willing the weather will cooperate and alow me to do this without any issues.

 

[slc_dan]

I've tried to stay out of this thread, mostly because @Nick has said everything I would have. You came asking for advice from people that have experience in the area, and that's what you were given. Of course it's up to you whether or not you take that advice, but it has been given to you.

No one is questioning, or berating your hard work for taking your students. Of course it's an amazing thing you are going out of your way to do for them.

I'm going down near the same area this weekend. I had plans to do something in a tighter canyon, but changed my plans yesterday to do something not so closed in due to the weather. The Boulder/GSENM area is over 2 MILLION acres!! So many amazing opportunities. Again, you'll do what you think is best. Personally, I changed my plans.

 

[Nick]

Weather, you are right, cannot be fully predicted. NO ONE KNOWS for sure what its going to be. Not the rangers, not the outfitters, not weather.com.

Ahhh there we go. That's exactly what I was trying to explain. My opinion isn't necessarily that you should or shouldn't go, it is that no one can safely predict several days out when it's this unstable and you should make plans accordingly and be prepared to change them if necessary. Being 'safe' by stubbornly sticking with the original plan is not a safe plan when there is a chance a flash flood can kill all of you in the blink of an eye. You may think you know the dangers there well, but this thread is proof that there are some you don't fully understand. Also, please note the differentiation between weather.gov and weather.com, it's a big one. I'm not faulting you for making plans and putting a group together at all. It's just irritating to offer advice because damn near every thread you've posted here over the years goes the same way. You ask for advice and then you explain why that advice doesn't matter and you'll do whatever you're gonna do anyway. I've bit my tongue and tried to help and I kind of snapped last night, for which I apologize. I should have just stopped replying. Fingers crossed I will now. No offense, and I'm sure there are others who will chime in with opinions if you need them. Like I said, have fun out there.

 

[John Kerby]

I feel like there has been a miscommunication somewhere here, not sure I understand a few aspects of this. My plan at this point, taking everything into consideration, is going to the visiters center sunday morning, checking with them on conditions and forcast, then making the decision. If the entire hike is out, I am thinking maybe to the airstrip to the entrence of death hollow and back, then maybe drive to the end and hike in as far as safe and then back out again.

Try to understand that part of my problem here is that I do not want to drive that far for the complete and total unknown. Not on this trip, with these kids. Thats a huge part of the reason I am stuck on DH. Not trying to annoy people. Its just that it is what I know. I know NOTHING of the rest of the area, and with the other factors I have not mentioned with this trip, driving there and spending more time to go elsewhere into the unknown is just not something I am confortable with when I have other peoples kids with me. I know many of the good camping locals in DH, know that there are many areas in it where in an emergency we could get out. The last resort for me is another hike, figured out sunday morning at the visitors center. But its the last resort. MAYBE God will smile on me and relieve us of the rain for a few days. I really want to show these kids this place. I do appriciate all the advice, and I am taking it into consideration. This is likely the last time I will be on here until next Friday when I am home and can report back. Wish me luck.

 

[Nick]

How'd it go out there @John Kerby? You know the rule, right? Report back and tell us about your trip or be banned for life! Hehehe.