San Juan Mtns, Weminuche Wilderness thrid and fourth weeks of this June (2025) Snowpack estimate

[John Morrow]

Hello all,

I may have an option for a ride to Durango arriving June 16. My ride returns to the PNW on July 1.

Does anyone know what the San Juan Mtns snowpack is this year relative to a 100% of normal winter?
Anyone willing to guess what high country trails would be like in terms of snow coverage between June 15 and 30?
A thought I have is to take the D & S RR to flag stops. Drop off at Colorado Trail Flag Stop in Elk Creek. Hike 40 miles to Needle Creek Flag Stop for train pickup.

Hunchback and Columbine Passes are over 12,400 Ft. Also curious to know if Vallencito Creek ford of Johnson Creek Trail is a problem that early.

Any thoughts and suggestions are welcome.

Thanks, community!

John

 

[fossana]

source: NWCC

 

[John Morrow]

View attachment 141638
View attachment 141639
source: NWCC

Nice, thanks! That's crazy looking. 25% of avg. overall. Snotels near Molas and Wolf Creek show 0 in. (close to 10,800') I'm guessing a month from now the trails and higher routes through the passes will have little to no snow. If the blue is the CDT then one snotel appears to be below Hunchback Pass. That ought to be near 11K also. Not a good sign for Lakes Powell and Mead!

 

[fossana]

Also from the NASA sat view from the 17th (too cloudy the past few days to see the snowpack):



re: CO River Basin

I mentioned on another thread that I attended a UT-centric water conf in March. The NWS and CO River folks were predicting a grim water outlook in the SW this year due to the non-existent monsoon last year and dry winter. We've had some reprieve from the end of La Niña and recent storms, but temps are starting to climb.

source: NOAA/NIDIS Drought Monitor







The Bureau of Reclamation site is down, but here is a plot of Lake Powell levels from Paul Lutus. There is normally a spike in levels from melt-off over the next ~1.5 months.