It's weather prediction time !

TrailScot

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Following on from John's (@John Morrow) very interesting look at the recent rainfall data for the South-West, I thought I'd have a (very unscientific) look at some previous years that also had high levels of precipitation. I then also extracted the data for how these previous years then panned out in terms of Snow Water Equivalent over the following months.

I selected the Escalante-Paria area. Unsurprisingly, 2026/27 appears to be a record-breaking year so far for rainfall in this area; it would normally take until the end of January for Escalante to have this much cumulative precipitation !

Whether this information will have any bearing on the next few months into 2027, who knows; but it's still interesting to see I think (lingering snow in June next year !! :) )

Two of the wettest years over recent decades were 2004/5 and 2010/11. These are the blue and red lines on the graphs below. The black line is the current year; the green line is the 30 year median. The pink line is 2025/26, for recent comparison, which had relatively low rainfall and SWE totals. (In fact, all snow had effectively melted by March 25th in 2026; some 50 days earlier than average !)

I also had a quick look at the most recent Super El Nino year of 2015/16 and, somewhat disappointingly, both precipitation and snow water levels over the period were very close to the overall median data.

(To extract this data I used this NWCC website for Utah. By using the Basin Plots pulldown on this page, different states can be selected).​
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Water 1.jpg
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Snow 1.jpg
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For 2015/16
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Water 2016.jpg
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Snow 2016.jpg
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Good stuff. I wonder if locals remember 2004/5 having an especially deep snowpack? I'm pretty sure I remember deep snow and large snowplow walls on the shoulders of Hwy 12 between Torrey and Boulder in spring of 2011. I thought how Boulder Mountain looked to have great spring ski opportunity as it seemed the snowmobiling interest was largely over for the season.
 
Fascinating! My October has definitely been affected by all the rain - in wonderful and memorable ways. :) Thanks for doing this analysis and sharing.
 
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