I've been planning my personal "spring break" trip to Southern Utah for a few months now and am supposed to leave on Saturday from SW CO. My plan was to backpack into Harris Wash in GSENM Monday morning and come out Tuesday, but the forecast is calling for scattered showers Monday afternoon and most of Tuesday at this point.
I am well aware of the dangers of flash-flooding in desert canyons. I've also been in lots of desert "rainstorms" where it barely sprinkles.
My question: at what point do you personally decide a canyon hike in wet weather is not worth the risk? As far as I can tell from the NWS tabular forecast at this point, a total of .1" inches might accumulate during that time frame. If forecast and reality are in sync, that's no worry, but forecast and reality are often not in sync, especially in the spring.
Would you go for it or find an alternate? I'll have my dog with me so have to stay out of the National Parks.
(If anyone's curious, the rest of my trip itinerary includes: Saturday 3/26 - trachyte creek tributaries, Sun - Upper calf creek falls, Mon/Tues harris wash, Wed - slots off of upper harris, thurs - hackberry or paria canyon, friday - TBD, Saturday 4/2 - buckskin gulch)
I am well aware of the dangers of flash-flooding in desert canyons. I've also been in lots of desert "rainstorms" where it barely sprinkles.
My question: at what point do you personally decide a canyon hike in wet weather is not worth the risk? As far as I can tell from the NWS tabular forecast at this point, a total of .1" inches might accumulate during that time frame. If forecast and reality are in sync, that's no worry, but forecast and reality are often not in sync, especially in the spring.
Would you go for it or find an alternate? I'll have my dog with me so have to stay out of the National Parks.
(If anyone's curious, the rest of my trip itinerary includes: Saturday 3/26 - trachyte creek tributaries, Sun - Upper calf creek falls, Mon/Tues harris wash, Wed - slots off of upper harris, thurs - hackberry or paria canyon, friday - TBD, Saturday 4/2 - buckskin gulch)