When to take a rain check?

[Vegan.Hiker]

It seems almost every week I begin checking the weather forecast mid-week for the upcoming weekend and by Thursday I need to make some decisions on whether to go or whether to save my vacation day for another weekend (I frequently take Fridays off and leave straight from work Thu night for a 3 day backpack). The reason I decided to start this thread is because this week looks like it might be a perfect example of the incessant forecast checking and waffling of plans that I'm talking about. I was planning on leaving this Thu evening to head 7 hours south to the Blue Ridge Mtns in VA since I had been rained out of doing this trip twice already this year. However as of right now (and I know it's still early) forecast is for 50% chance of rain on both Saturday and Sunday. So I looked 6 hours north at the White Mtns in NH and again... 50% chance of rain both Sat and Sun. .. 5 hours northwest to the ADK's and again same forecast. I even looked 6 hours due west at Letchworth State Park in western NY since I've had it on my to-do list but it's 50% chance both Sat and Sun there as well.

So if the forecast were to stay put until Thu when I have to decide whether to go or stay, what would your decision-making process look like? It's not that I'm hesitant to do some hiking in the rain, it's more about saving that Friday vacation day and banking it for a better weekend. I feel like I struggle all week, almost every week with these weather decisions and would be surprised if everyone else didn't as well. I think the amount of driving that I need to put in makes the decision a little trickier as well.

So when do you guys take a rain check on weekend backpacking trip? When rain is predicted on 2 of 3 days? If probabilities each day are above 30%, %50%, 70%? When do you guys decide to stay home?

 

[Wyatt Carson]

It depends on the season and terrain I guess. I bugged out of an area that was steep downhill with a long questionable dirt surface road leading in when a powerful winter storm was approaching. We relocated to a place we could get out of later.

We don't like wet and rainy camping or hiking but it is real hard to tell just where the rains are going to hit at times. Sometimes it will have rainstorms all around us but not on us. I have found if I take my Snugpak Patrol Poncho there may be rain everywhere but where I am. I have not had a drop fall on me for my last 75 nights out when that raingear was with me. It snowed and sleeted on our tent one night after we were snug inside but that was it.

I have to say one of my more pleasurable memories is a time we hiked along as a soft snow lazily floated down around us. It was magic. One of the worst was an un-forecast rainstorm pounded us for 3 ½ days and nights at 10,000'.

Most of the time I just think of how I could get out of a place if the roads became greasy mud. Many roads on the Colorado Plateau are not navigable if they get very wet and may get washed out. We always have a shovel, ax and saw onboard just in case we can use them to get out and that has happened several times, small washouts and blown down trees. The mud is not something we can fix though.

I just try to make a good call, not all that easy to do at times.

 

[WasatchWill]

Honestly, I don't know how you folks back east can plan on a trip having good to fair weather very far in advance. Seems like every time I look at a national weather map, there is some kind of huge nasty looking storm system moving through some part of the East Coast. Then again, if it's anything like it is out here, where storms can be forecasted for the weekend one day and the next day that forecast will change for the better, and often visa versa. But with the extra miles and time you have to put in on the road to get out to the areas you like to go, I'd probably consider waiting for a weekend where things look more favorable.

 

[Vegan.Hiker]

Seems like every time I look at a national weather map, there is some kind of huge nasty looking storm system moving through some part of the East Coast

Pretty much feels that way.. I'm leaving from work tomorrow to go "somewhere". The car is packed and I have a stack of guidebooks from multiple states on the passenger seat. When I get in the car after work I'll check the forecasts one last time and pick a direction to start driving.

 

[Dustin Gent]

as a photographer, I always look at the cloud cover and not the rain chance. Maybe I should start looking at the precipitation chance

 

[Joey]

Pretty much feels that way.. I'm leaving from work tomorrow to go "somewhere". The car is packed and I have a stack of guidebooks from multiple states on the passenger seat. When I get in the car after work I'll check the forecasts one last time and pick a direction to start driving.

The forecast here in Montana is 0% chance of rain the next several days, and I need a hiking partner. So if you get the urge to hop on a plane....

 

[andyjaggy]

I used to, well still do sometimes, check the weather obsessively. I've gotten to the point though where I just have to plan a trip in advance, and stick with it no matter what the weather is doing. As a photographer you like to chase the storm light, but I simply don't have the freedom to pick up and go whenever the weather looks promising for photos. That said if it looks particularly nasty I will sometimes bail.

 

[Opi]

I do the weather checking thing all the time.
Before our trip to VA I would check the weather 5 times a day. And they always called for 50% chance of storms everyday. I don't think they ever change it!
And we only had a couple hours of rain total the entire 5 day trip. @Vegan.Hiker Go for it!
But on most of my planed trips I usually have a back up plan to travel in the another direction. A lot of times weather can be bad 3 hours North but fantastic 3 hours South. I'm going South.

 

[mak1277]

I struggle with the same thing. I bailed on a trip on 4th of July weekend because of the forecast and it ended up barely raining. Seems like I almost always regret bailing when I do. That said, the weather in the East this spring/summer has been horrific so bailing isn't a terrible option.

We're also at the point where even if it doesn't rain, you're going to be trudging along in 90* heat and 90% humidity. Right now in Northern VA it feels beautiful out....still 65% humidity. Have I mentioned my desire to relocate west?

 

[Vegan.Hiker]

The forecast here in Montana is 0% chance of rain the next several days, and I need a hiking partner. So if you get the urge to hop on a plane....

Joey, try to give me at least a week on these things lol. Yesterday I actually did look for last minute flight deals but nothing great came up. Although I did find a flight from Newark (the city I work in) to Cancun for $261 round trip Thu-Sun. I thought about it half-heartily for a sec but figured it would end up turning into a highly unprepared survival situation as opposed to a leisurely backpacking trip.

 

[gnwatts]

I have never cancelled a backpacking trip due to weather. Even with the worst weather there are the moments that make it worth it, at least for me.

 

[Wyatt Carson]

The first thing I do every morning is check the current weather and the forecast, a habit after 30 years of aerial mapping photography.

One of the luxuries I take is my little Sangean DT400W, an AM/FM/WX receiver that pulls in more clear stations than any other radio I've ever used. It has a search/scan button and gets 7 NOAA weather stations. Usually I can tune into one or more of those 7 but I was skunked once somewhere around the Paria Plateau. The radio still got a good FM station that did have some weather.

Besides we like a little music with our meals, very healthy. and good entertainment on dark cold, windy nights at times.

 

[Vegan.Hiker]

You're old school Wyatt.. I dig it. You're like the oldschool Jets fans I see at the stadium listening to the radio broadcast on their walkman with the foam headphones.

 

[Nurrgle]

Haven't canceled due to weather yet. I didn't care much when I was younger and living in Utah and now that I am in Colorado on the Front Range, it pretty much rains every afternoon to some degree. I was in Winter Park for the Bluegrass Festival a couple of weeks ago and it went from sunny, to rain, to 1/4" hail all within an hour. I left my vestibule open, thankfully not off, and had a bit of a mess when I got back.